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  • Whom to trust: Free or Paid Whom to trust: Free or Paid
    Which web traffic ratings system do you trust – your own or the other guy’s?

    Recently, a client asked me how to differentiate between the data they collect on their own web sites and the data on free services like Alexa or Compete.com. Here is my response:

    When you directly install a system such as WebTrends on your site or use the reporting tool that is built-into the Broadcast Interactive/Clickability system, these systems are directly measuring traffic on your sites by installing tags on your pages that send calls directly to their tracking servers. So, these types of systems tend to be very accurate and (along with comScore rankings which also require tags to be installed on your sites) are generally trusted in the market. Same with Google Analytics.

    However, even these systems will vary in their results by 10-15% typically, based on what they define as a ‘full page load’ versus a ‘partial page load’, etc…., given that often times a user will click and navigate away from a page before it fully loads. They will also quite literally vary based where the tags are placed on the site (top or bottom of the page). So, a certain amount of variation is normal and healthy.

    Services like Compete.com and Alexa.com are free services that don’t have the benefit of directly installing tags on your sites – instead they use a number of indirect methods of measuring traffic and user engagement. This might include tracking ISP records, dropping cookies on user-machines that have downloaded their toolbar (such as Alexa does) to track user behavior, etc…. kind of like a free version of Nielsen for the web.

    In general, then, I’d say you should trust and rely on your direct measurement reports (ie, WebTrends or Broadcast Interactive/Clickability reports), but that you can use Compete or the Alexa toolbar to track relative performance of other sites in your markets.

    If you catch a competitor stating that their site gets more traffic than yours based solely on Compete.com records, you should ask that they back it up by releasing their WebTrends, comScore, or Google Analytics reports. This is especially true if you feel that Compete.com is under-ranking your site relative to the numbers you see in WebTrends.

    To summarize: trust your installed and fee-based ratings numbers over the free ratings services but use the free services for quick comparisons.
  • Local media, YouNews™, and the Mumbai attacks Local media, YouNews™, and the Mumbai attacks
    A fascinating aspect of the Mumbai attacks that has been much-discussed but can't be overemphasized to BIM's local media clients is how the first reports of the attacks were filed. It wasn't via an AP story or a locally based cameraman who happened to be in the area.

    One of the first reports was from a visiting Harvard professor who filed reports to his Twitter page and to his blog as reported in this NYTimes.com article:

    Some interesting things to consider as a result of this occurrence:

    • The chances of a Citizen Journalist such as Mr. Shanbhag being in the area of breaking news are infinitely greater than the chances of a salaried (or even free-lance) Associated Press, Reuters, or traditional media reporter.
    • Any traditional media outlet that does not effectively harness the power of social media, and allow users to not only impact but in many cases dictate their coverage, will become less and less relevant in the coming years (months?)
    • Given that CNN lost its broadcast license in the midst of the crisis (to quote, ""Live satellite transmission from India has to be approved by the Indian government," CNN spokesperson Nigel Pritchard tells TVNewser. "Unfortunately, the officials are not extending CNN's live transmission license") how much did iReport help CNN in maintaining coverage?
    • Why did he upload to his own blog and to Twitter before uploading to a site such as www.boston.com or to any of the local Boston-area TV station websites? Or, for that matter, why not to the NYTimes.com (the paper that wrote the story about his posts)?
    • Given that Mr. Shanbhag is based in Boston, he must have been exposed to local promotions and user outreach efforts from the local Boston media. But, if I go to www.boston.com, it's very difficult to find a link where a user might upload a photo or video regarding breaking news (let alone maintain a blog).

    These questions and observations are critical as local media sites look to find a way to beat the recession and climb back out of the advertising slump. Until we can engage local users so that they realize our sites actually revolve around them, and that we'll eagerly embrace verified breaking news when they send it our way, local sites will lose out to the big portals and exploding social media sites.

    YouNews™ is BIM's answer to connecting with your audience in this manner, but whatever the solution is let's make sure the next big breaking news story is broken locally first.
  • What Wall Street Wants What Wall Street Wants

    Three weeks ago I was speaking at a technical/CMS conference down in Austin, and the response of the attendees to several of my initial questions highlighted yet again the challenge facing local media (especially TV).

    Keep in mind that the audience was composed of men and women who all work in the Web industry (digital agencies, technology companies, even folks that run university websites), so obviously some of the answers are skewed heavily in favor of the Web over other media.  Still, though, these are generally successful people who would make up a valuable part of any advertiser’s demographic.

    As I asked:
    “How many of you are on LinkedIn at least once a week?” – 100% of the 60 or so attendees’ hands went up.
    “How many on Facebook?” – 90% of the hands went up.
    “How many on Twitter?” – 60% of the hands went up.
    “MySpace?” – 40%

    “How many of you read a hardcopy newspaper at least several times a week?” – roughly 20% of the hands went up (including my own, I am a devoted Wall Street Journal subscriber and am very attached to using downtime “during taxi, takeoff, and landing” to read through the Journal.)

    Then, the kicker:
    “How many of you watch a local TV newscast at least once a week?” – perhaps 15% of the hands went up.

    Interestingly, roughly the same number of people put their hands up when I asked how many of them visited a local media website on a regular basis – a positive note which still doesn’t make up for the decline in core audience.

    These types of quick surveys always emphasize for me how much traditional local media outlets are still letting Yahoo!, Google, Weather.com, Craigslist, and the various social media players dominate what will be the main growth engine for advertisers in the coming years.

    As part of the industry representing local interactive, I hope that owners of these sites will soon realize that generating 5 million (mm), 10 mm, or even 40 mm pageviews a month in most local markets still means less than a 5% share of the overall online market for user engagement (and only a small fraction of most local sites are generating even 10 mm pageviews a month currently).  Hopefully, this will lead to a level of (smart) investment that is commensurate with the revenue numbers that Wall Street desires.

  • A matter of scale - local media websites' traffic vs. the portals A matter of scale - local media websites' traffic vs. the portals

    Recently, during one of my standard presentations to a group of prospective broadcast clients and TV news analysts, I asked what I thought to be a relatively easy question: "What's the number one trafficked site on the web, excluding the social networking sites such as MySpace, Facebook, YouTube, etc...?"

    I was surprised that nobody seemed to know the answer. So I gave it - Yahoo! - and asked a follow-on question, "How much monthly traffic in page views does Yahoo get?"

    A few brave souls ventured a guess ... "20 million?" or "200 million?" they asked. As I kept urging them to guess higher, one fellow near the back of the room finally got up the guts and ventured (as though he could hardly believe he was throwing out such a big number), "2 billion?"

    When I answered that, according to easily found site traffic ratings, the network of Yahoo! sites get about 45 to 50 billion page views per month, the audience seemed to be in shock. My sense is that they were too used to hearing stats such as "WXYZ.com gets 10 million page views per month" that they didn't realize that (for most DMAs) 10 million page views per month is a drop in the bucket as far as overall web traffic from that DMA goes. Further, most local broadcasters and newspaper owners have focused almost exclusively on showing growth in local revenue (and, unfortunately, have typically fudged their revenue numbers by including 'convergent revenue' rather than pure Web revenue) without addressing the underlying issue of growth in traffic.

    Follow through this "top down" analysis of Yahoo! website traffic to estimate how close your local newspaper, television, or radio website might be to matching Yahoo, Google, or MSN in overall page views:


    • Yahoo gets about 45 billion page views per month (conservatively)

    • Of that traffic, roughly 70% is from international users (so only 30% of Yahoo traffic is from the USA).

    • The population of the United States is roughly 300 million people.

    • Therefore, Yahoo gets about 50 page views per month for every man, woman, and child in the United States.

    • In a market such as, say, Atlanta (with roughly 2 million TV households and about 4.5 million people), this works out to over 220 million page views per month.

    • In a DMA such as Madison, WI (about 700,000 people in the DMA), Yahoo likely drives about 35 million page views per month.



    Keep in mind that these traffic numbers are just for Yahoo, and don't take into account MSN, Google Sites, the various social networking sites, Craigslist, etc..., which are all driving traffic and revenue from local markets.

    As far as I know, the top TV station websites in the USA are KSL.com in Salt Lake and WRAL.com in Raleigh-Durham (each doing over 40 to 60 million page views per month, perhaps much more in certain cases). These sites might actually compare fairly well to Yahoo in overall page views. By my guess, Yahoo would get about 80 million page views per month from Salt Lake and over 100 million from Raleigh-Durham.

    What these back-of-the-envelope calculations emphasize to me again is how important it is that local media sites evolve beyond "News, Weather, Sports, and Traffic" and actually create new content exclusively for the web and for their local communities. News-Weather-Sports only has a finite amount of traffic that it can drive, and it's not nearly enough to attract the advertisers needed to keep our businesses growing.

    This is where programs such as YouNews(tm) and other vertical content channels fit into the picture for local media - these are new content and revenue sources that would never show up on-air or in-print, but are critical when it comes to providing innovative content and applications to local audiences. Fundamentally, it is applications such as these that will provide breakthrough traffic growth for local media sites - a key element for the future of local media if we are not going to give up all growth prospects to the major web portals.

  • YouNewsTV™, and lessons to be learned from Craigslist YouNewsTV™, and lessons to be learned from Craigslist
    With the dramatic ascent of YouTube and other video sharing sites these past two years (was it only last October that YouTube was acquired by Google?!), and the ensuing shift in video advertising dollars away from traditional cable and TV outlets, it's instructive to look at the challenges that another traditional advertising industry faced by an interactive upstart and how they responded.

    The industry and respective challenger I refer to is the newspaper industry with Craigslist.

    If you think back almost 10 years to 1998, Craigslist was still a relative newcomer to the online-postings scene and really wasn't yet considered a threat to newspaper classifieds (Craigslist didn't really start generating revenue from a "traditional" classifieds per-posting model until 2004 when it started charging $25 for job postings in New York City). However, many online classifieds sites had launched and newspaper executives were keenly aware of the threat posed by these sites -- it just remained to be seen which of the online-only classifieds sites would get the model right and do the most damage to the traditional newspapers.

    To summarize the known threats that online classifieds posed to newspaper classifieds revenue in 1998, they were:

    • Virtually no barrier to entry for a new classifieds site to launch (either a national site or a local site). Some expertise in classifieds software was needed, but even in 1998 this was relatively inexpensive.
    • No distribution costs for online classifieds vs. newspaper classifieds, which meant that a classifieds site could be VERY profitable with minimal staff and low posting fees if only they got enough traffic. This opened the door to the idea of keeping most classified categories free in order to drive traffic to categories such as jobs, autos, and real estate ("while you're here looking for a date or a used sofa, why not browse our job listings?").
    • Very low acquisition costs for the classifieds postings -- Craigslist doesn't run a 'classifieds department' or ad manager that has to take credit card payments manually or vet each posting for obscene language. Up until recently, Craigslist was run by only 20 or so employees out of the founder's house in San Francisco.
    • National and international presence became simply a matter of setting up additional classifieds sites after initial success in one area or market (Craigslist is now live in over 50 countries and 450 cities across the world).
    • Traditional newspaper sites remained focused and linked to only one main city or geographic area, so that if a user moved from city to city there was no continuity in the classifieds solution they might use. This is not true of Craigslist.

    Unfortunately, the newspaper industry reacted to this threat by counting on the dominance of their local newspaper brand, promotional ability, and history as the best place to look for classified jobs and autos. Very few sites, if any, even took the step of allowing users to post free listings in categories such as "used furniture" or even "unpaid internships." And, even worse, there never appeared to be a newspaper industry-wide consortium that came together to promote a common classifieds platform or format that each newspaper could own in its respective market and still link out to other city sites from. (Until very recently, that is, with Yahoo's effort to pull together disparate newspaper groups ... too little, too late?)

    The rest is history. Users flocked to Craigslist, and analysts can only estimate how much classifieds advertising Craigslist has pulled away from traditional newspapers. We all know it's a big number, but aren't sure of exact revenues given that Craigslist has never gone public or taken investment such that they'd need to disclose numbers. Must be a nice position to be in if you are Craig Newmark (the founder of Craigslist).

    What's instructive about this is that the challenges faced by the TV industry by the likes of YouTube are identical to what was faced by the newspapers:

    • No barrier to entry for video sites to launch
    • Very low distribution costs for online video vs. maintaining a traditional TV station and sales force. Bandwidth is getting cheaper and cheaper, and online video sites are able to generate revenue from nearly every video play now.
    • No acquisition costs for content as it's mostly user-generated or short-form content (compare this to the cost of syndicated promoting (programming?) or even reality program shows).
    • National and international presence for these sites is simply a matter of driving enough clicks.

    YouNews is Broadcast Interactive Media's attempt to facilitate the formation of a consortium of TV broadcasters that "own" the YouNews brand in their respective market, but are linked together by a common underlying platform from which they can all generate revenue and share content. YouNews gives our clients all of the advantages listed above that the video sites have over a traditional TV station, and still allows them to leverage their core broadcasting asset to retain dominance in their respective DMAs.

    It is my sincere hope that YouNews can be a key reason why TV broadcasters do not face the same fate (and the same Wall Street valuations) as the newspaper industry is currently facing.
  • Web Video Ads – the format wars (Part 1) Web Video Ads – the format wars (Part 1)
    Given that Broadcast Interactive Media represents one of the largest networks of local TV sites on the Web, it’s inevitable that once video advertising really started to take off both BIM and our clients would be in the thick of it.

    Now, with web video advertising estimated to hit nearly $800 million in 2007 (up from $350 million in 2006) and to grow just as quickly in the 2008 political year, the opinions and ideas as to what is the ‘right’ video advertising format are approaching a fever pitch.  This is true in all types of interactive companies, but particularly so within local media companies that own TV and radio stations or newspapers now that Veronis Suhler Stevenson has forecasted that interactive advertising is set to surpass standard television advertising by 2011.

    To put it simply, everyone is fighting for a piece of the online video advertising pie, and with the barriers to entry for web video publishers at historic lows, everyone is essentially fighting to find the right way to aggregate an audience on the web and to monetize video streams (without immediately alienating the audience they’ve worked so hard to build).

    Currently, the dominant form of interactive video advertising is the short video commercial that either precedes, follows, or interrupts a video clip that the viewer actually wants to watch.  These are the standard 15 second and 30 second pre-, post-, and mid-roll that the Internet Advertising Bureau (IAB) have officially sanctioned as IAB-compliant formats.

    The advantages to the pre-, post, or mid-roll format can be summed up fairly easily, especially for BIM’s TV station clients:
    • Such online video spots are directly analogous to a 30-second TV spot, so media and broadcast ad executives understand the branding benefits involved.
    • They are fairly easy to sell on a CPM (cost per thousand impressions) basis, given that it’s easy to show the branding value of an active user click followed by a short commercial view.
    • The pre-roll format is appealing to old-word Madison Avenue ad agencies and rep firms because they require creative effort to come up with a good spot for the client, and an advertiser has to be careful on which site this pre-roll spot runs (hence, the advertisers needs both the agency and the rep firm as middlemen to do this leg work).  This keeps people in something close to their current jobs.
    • Online video commercials generally don’t interfere with the actual video by covering up any portion of the requested stream.

    The disadvantages of the pre-roll or mid-roll format can also be fairly easily summed up, especially when compared to the stunning success of an advertising format such as Google AdSense that places small, textual links in the midst of stories.  (Google is forecasted to do roughly $9 billion in AdSense sales in 2007, and I cite comparisons to AdSense because many people credit Google and AdSense with nearly single-handedly bringing the online advertising market out of the doldrums in 2003.). 
    • Pre-rolls (any form of short video commercial) requires creative work, making the ads inherently more difficult to place for small businesses with small ad budgets
    • Online video commercials are inherently disruptive, especially when compared to contextual text ads, as they normally cannot be skipped and take the user away from what they’d really like to do or see online. 
      • Most video publishers I speak with estimate that their video impressions drop by nearly 50% when the run 30-second pre-rolls, although some studies cited by the OMMA or OPA would disagree with this.
    • The measurement of effectiveness for a video commercial is much harder to define than is a click-through on a display ad – the question remains, “Should pre-rolls be viewed as a branding opportunity or a direct response measurement?”
      • One of the most appealing aspects to AdSense and online advertising in general is the ability to engage in CPC (cost per click) advertising and to quickly experiment with various campaigns in matter of days.
    • Ad-serving companies such as DoubleClick, Atlast, and 24/7 RealMedia have only recently (ie, in the last 6 months) come up with an integrated way for a publisher to easily traffic both display and pre-roll ads from one integrated console.
  • Web Video Ads – the format wars (Part 2) Web Video Ads – the format wars (Part 2)
    Given these formidable disadvantages, it’s no wonder that many sites and advertisers are aggressively experimenting with other video advertising formats.  The most prevalent alternative formats currently are either the graphical overlay ad or textual overlay ad (see www.youtube.com or one of BIM’s current clients www.wkbw.com for examples of sites experimenting with such formats).

    The advantages of such formats are considerable, and follow much more closely the AdSense model of advertising delivery.
    • The ads are generally not as intrusive in nature, as they allow a user to immediately begin viewing the video content requested and can be closed by the viewer.
    • The ads require minimal creative effort on the part of the advertisers, and campaigns can be varied much more quickly and easily because of this.
    • Such ads can realistically be sold on a CPC basis as necessary, as the action desired by the user is truly a click rather than simply a tracked impression.  This leads to less risk on the part of the advertisers.
    • Text and graphical ads are less expensive to store, serve, and manage than are video assets.
    • Given the large amount of advertisers already participating in contextual ad programs, it’s easy to use textual or graphical overlay ads as remnant backfill.  This means that a site publisher is protected against any bandwidth overage charges from a video that may go viral from their site.

    However, for content creators and owners (especially news-production shops), text and graphical overlay ads pose a number of challenges:
    • Such ads may appear and cover up critical areas of the video (such as a station logo or weather ticker).
    • Some users may not realize that they can minimize the ad, and be forced to watch a ‘covered up’ version of the content.  This will most likely lead to the user going to another site for the same or similar content.
    • Selling overlay ads via CPC rates may never fundamentally value the branding awareness given by being associated with a piece of desired video content.

    These are major disadvantages, and certainly sites will need to experiment aggressively with different solutions to make this type of ad work.  Some ideas, such as minimizing the video rather than covering it up to serve the ad, may pose a good middle ground between the two formats.

    What’s the ultimate solution?  While some may advocate one format as completely preferable to another, or state that overlay ads are only a good solution to monetize lower quality video content such as user-generated video, I believe the answer is simple: It’s too early to tell, and the sites and ad networks that can most quickly experiment with multiple formats and adapt to the successful models will win the lion’s share of ad revenues.  Those that are unwilling to experiment or force one format over another will fail.

    And what’s the opinion of the folks here at Broadcast Interactive Media?  Based on a recent straw poll at an all-hands meeting, the following video ad formats were the winners with our “mostly twenty-something recently graduated from the University of Wisconsin” group of employees (when they were asked what they would prefer as users when surfing their favorite video sites):
    • Those that prefer an overlay ad to a 30-second pre-roll: 95%
    • Those that prefer an overlay ad to a 15-seond pre-roll: 80%
    • Those that prefer an overlay ad to a 5-second pre-roll: 50%

    This is of course an unscientific study, and I encourage you to actively experiment and ask the same types of questions at your organizations and share your thoughts with me and this community via our commenting feature on this blog.

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